Love this! I've been trying to figure out how to do this with that figure they've been throwing around about how the jabs lower your risk of going to the hospital from Covid 17%. But what is the likelihood of going to hospital with covid unvaccinated?
Is it something like 0.02 chance of being hospitalized before the jab? In that case, with the high VAERs rate reported (mostly inreported is my guess) there is not a good ARR?
Great point. This ARR vs. RRR issue comes into every discussion of this sort (or at least it should!). For instance, some have argued that the chance of developing myocarditis is higher from COVID itself than from the vaccine. I don't think that's actually true anyway, but even if it were, it is an RRR argument. To have a proper ARR discussion on that specific topic, one needs to take into account that 100% of people will be exposed to the vaccine (if public health and politicians have their way) whereas significantly less than 100% will get COVID. So even if COVID did have a higher RRR for myocarditis, the ARR would likely still be higher from vaccination in younger age groups, especially with males.
Hospitalization rates are a little nebulous, because we don't know how many people actually have had COVID. Many don't know they have, or don't report it. There is a difference between hospitalization rates per known case, and per actual infection. The numbers I read during delta were up to 3% of known cases were hospitalized. It is clearly far less for omicron.
I've heard wildly different numbers from public health in various provinces/countries about the risk of hospitalization of unvaxxed vs. vaccinated. Anywhere from 50% more likely, to 28X more likely. Quite a large range, suggesting that we don't really have a clear answer.
Mar 14, 2022·edited Mar 14, 2022Liked by Pairodocs
Thank you! So they can cherry pick amongst any of the most favorable figures (to their purposes) and there’s no way to use their figures for common sense refutation? It’s very frustration that they can shovel this stuff at people day and night
Added to the relative risk is the unfortunate fact that exposure to the shark repellant might cause myocarditis.
Love this! I've been trying to figure out how to do this with that figure they've been throwing around about how the jabs lower your risk of going to the hospital from Covid 17%. But what is the likelihood of going to hospital with covid unvaccinated?
Is it something like 0.02 chance of being hospitalized before the jab? In that case, with the high VAERs rate reported (mostly inreported is my guess) there is not a good ARR?
I'm already learning from you!
Great point. This ARR vs. RRR issue comes into every discussion of this sort (or at least it should!). For instance, some have argued that the chance of developing myocarditis is higher from COVID itself than from the vaccine. I don't think that's actually true anyway, but even if it were, it is an RRR argument. To have a proper ARR discussion on that specific topic, one needs to take into account that 100% of people will be exposed to the vaccine (if public health and politicians have their way) whereas significantly less than 100% will get COVID. So even if COVID did have a higher RRR for myocarditis, the ARR would likely still be higher from vaccination in younger age groups, especially with males.
Hospitalization rates are a little nebulous, because we don't know how many people actually have had COVID. Many don't know they have, or don't report it. There is a difference between hospitalization rates per known case, and per actual infection. The numbers I read during delta were up to 3% of known cases were hospitalized. It is clearly far less for omicron.
I've heard wildly different numbers from public health in various provinces/countries about the risk of hospitalization of unvaxxed vs. vaccinated. Anywhere from 50% more likely, to 28X more likely. Quite a large range, suggesting that we don't really have a clear answer.
Thank you! So they can cherry pick amongst any of the most favorable figures (to their purposes) and there’s no way to use their figures for common sense refutation? It’s very frustration that they can shovel this stuff at people day and night